The Mummer's Dragon: Is Young Girff the Real Aegon?
If you've read A Dance with Dragons, this question has probably been on your mind: Is Aegon/ Young Griff the real deal?
If Aegon Targaryen did, in fact, survive the sack of King's Landing it would create some ambiguity as to who is the true heir to the Iron Throne. As the son of Rhaegar, Aerys' heir, Aegon has a better claim to the throne than Daenerys Targaryen. Of course, there have been many theories put forward stating that Dany with rule jointly with the other two heads of the dragon, but it seems that Dany's ascension is GRRM's endgame. Conversely, the supposed "Aegon" may just be a red herring to throw reader's off.
There is significant evidence for both arguments. Personally, I want to believe that Aegon survived, but at this point, there's just not enough information to go on. Let's start with the evidence that supports Young Griff as Aegon:
1. Young Griff looks like a Targaryen; although not all Targaryens have the trademark white hair and purple eyes, all people with white hair and purple eyes are Targaryens - at least in Westeros.
2. At the end of A Dance with Dragons, Varys explains to Kevan Lannister that Aegon is still alive. As Varys was about to kill Kevan, there was little reason to lie to a dying man. However, Varys is still one of the most untrustworthy characters in the books and his motives are still unclear, so we have to take everything he says with a grain of salt.
3. No one was able to recognize the corpse of "Aegon". Rhaenys' face was intact, but Gregor Clegane smashed the baby's skull, completely destroying his face. Detractors argue that it would have been impossible for Varys to know that the baby would be unrecognizable after death, but, if you considering things from Varys' perspective it hardly seems to matter. If Robert had discovered that Aegon had survived, what would he have done about it? After all, Viserys and Daenerys had also escaped and had as good a claim to the throne as Aegon, yet Robert never tried to get rid of them until Dany's wedding. Considering the Viserys was much older than Aegon, and therefore a much greater threat, it seems unlikely that Robert would have been too concerned with orphaned, impoverished Aegon, half a world away.
4. It is said that Elia Martell fought like a "tigress" to save Aegon. Detractors argue that she wouldn't have fought so fiercely for a baby that wasn't hers. But there is no evidence that she fought at all. The only person to know that truth of what happened is the Mountain. It could even be argued that Elia fought to save the baby so that no one would learn the truth of Aegon's escape.
5. Jon Connington, Rhaegar's best friend, raised Young Griff. Connington wouldn't sacrifice everything (life, family, and lands) if he wasn't sure that he was saving Rhaegar's son.
6. There was enough suspicion/danger in King's Landing that Rhaella and Viserys were sent to Dragonstone; if that was the case, surely Elia would have at least tried to do something to save her children.
If we listen to that evidence, it seems pretty probable that Aegon is the third head of the dragon, but, unfortunately there is a lot of contradictory evidence to muddy the pool.
1. The Third Head of the Dragon would be an important character, many argue that GRRM wouldn't wait so long to introduce him/her. Significantly, Young Griff is not a POV character, making his importance to the overall story doubtful. It is worthwhile to note that non-POV characters seldom turn out to be important in ASOIAF. On the flip side, though, Ned Stark was a POV Character and look what happened to him.
2. It has been argued by some that Young Griff is too young to be Aegon. In A Dance with Dragons, Tyrion notes that Young Griff looks to be about fifteen years old. I've read several accounts that say that Aegon should be at least 18. I'm not sure how those people are doing their math. Dates are a little imprecise in the novels, but it was clear that Aegon was born a few months before Robert's Rebellion started. The rebellion lasted somewhere between six to eighteen months. Dany was born shortly before the rebellion ended. In A Dance with Dragons, Dany is about sixteen (the first five books take place over a three year span), this means that Aegon should be somewhere between sixteen and eighteen. Fifteen is still a bit of a low estimate, but it is not inconceivable that Tyrion confused a seventeen year old with a fifteen year old. Although it is still important to note that there is some ambiguity surrounding the issue of age.
3. Most significantly, In A Clash of Kings Dany receives a vision that tells her to be wary of the 'Mummer's Dragon'. It is widely agreed that Aegon is the dragon in question. The phrase either refers to his connection with Varys (who was raised by mummers) or the fact that he is a false Targaryen (mummers are play actors).
4. In Essos, white hair and violet eyes aren't as rare as they are in Westeros; therefore it is entirely possible that Young Griff only looked the part.
5. If Young Griff is a true Targaryen, who didn't he and Jon Connington try to reunite with Daenerys and Viserys at some point over the intervening ~12 years? Viserys would have known what baby Aegon looked like and there could have been a chance that he would have notice that Young Griff wasn't a real Targaryen (although, that's giving Viserys a lot of credit).
6. It has been proposed (based on virtually no textual evidence) that Young Griff is actually a Blackfyre. House Blackfyres is an offshoot of House Targaryen, founded by Daemon Blackfyre, the illegitimate son of Aegon IV. According to Illyrio, House Blackfyre is extinct in the male line, but there is still a chance that Young Griff could have descended from the female line. If so, Young Griff may still be an important player in the series. As a Blackfyre, he technically still bares Targaryen blood, which means that he could be a useful ally (or even spouse) for Dany. It's a bit like Henry VII of England marrying Elizabeth of York after the royal house of York was essentially extinct in the male line (Edward Plantagenet, Earl of Warwick died about ten years after Henry and Elizabeth's marriage). Since GRRM is known to have been inspired by the English War of the Roses, this isn't an impossible turn of events. I know that there are a lot of Targaryen purists out there, but a Blackfyre is still more of a Targaryen then any other noble house in Westeros. I think Young Griff might have a part to play in this respect. There have also been theories that Young Griff is actually Illyrio's son (since it is widely believed that Illyrio had a Blackfyre wife), but I think that's going a bit far. If anything, Illyrio was introduced to Griff's family through his wife's connections.
All in all, the evidence supporting both sides is a little flimsy. In most cases, evidence can be manipulated to support both sides of the argument. In the end it comes down to instinct; if you've been reading ASOIAF for long enough, you probably have your own theories about the arc of the series.
Valar dohaeris
If Aegon Targaryen did, in fact, survive the sack of King's Landing it would create some ambiguity as to who is the true heir to the Iron Throne. As the son of Rhaegar, Aerys' heir, Aegon has a better claim to the throne than Daenerys Targaryen. Of course, there have been many theories put forward stating that Dany with rule jointly with the other two heads of the dragon, but it seems that Dany's ascension is GRRM's endgame. Conversely, the supposed "Aegon" may just be a red herring to throw reader's off.
There is significant evidence for both arguments. Personally, I want to believe that Aegon survived, but at this point, there's just not enough information to go on. Let's start with the evidence that supports Young Griff as Aegon:
1. Young Griff looks like a Targaryen; although not all Targaryens have the trademark white hair and purple eyes, all people with white hair and purple eyes are Targaryens - at least in Westeros.
2. At the end of A Dance with Dragons, Varys explains to Kevan Lannister that Aegon is still alive. As Varys was about to kill Kevan, there was little reason to lie to a dying man. However, Varys is still one of the most untrustworthy characters in the books and his motives are still unclear, so we have to take everything he says with a grain of salt.
3. No one was able to recognize the corpse of "Aegon". Rhaenys' face was intact, but Gregor Clegane smashed the baby's skull, completely destroying his face. Detractors argue that it would have been impossible for Varys to know that the baby would be unrecognizable after death, but, if you considering things from Varys' perspective it hardly seems to matter. If Robert had discovered that Aegon had survived, what would he have done about it? After all, Viserys and Daenerys had also escaped and had as good a claim to the throne as Aegon, yet Robert never tried to get rid of them until Dany's wedding. Considering the Viserys was much older than Aegon, and therefore a much greater threat, it seems unlikely that Robert would have been too concerned with orphaned, impoverished Aegon, half a world away.
4. It is said that Elia Martell fought like a "tigress" to save Aegon. Detractors argue that she wouldn't have fought so fiercely for a baby that wasn't hers. But there is no evidence that she fought at all. The only person to know that truth of what happened is the Mountain. It could even be argued that Elia fought to save the baby so that no one would learn the truth of Aegon's escape.
5. Jon Connington, Rhaegar's best friend, raised Young Griff. Connington wouldn't sacrifice everything (life, family, and lands) if he wasn't sure that he was saving Rhaegar's son.
6. There was enough suspicion/danger in King's Landing that Rhaella and Viserys were sent to Dragonstone; if that was the case, surely Elia would have at least tried to do something to save her children.
If we listen to that evidence, it seems pretty probable that Aegon is the third head of the dragon, but, unfortunately there is a lot of contradictory evidence to muddy the pool.
1. The Third Head of the Dragon would be an important character, many argue that GRRM wouldn't wait so long to introduce him/her. Significantly, Young Griff is not a POV character, making his importance to the overall story doubtful. It is worthwhile to note that non-POV characters seldom turn out to be important in ASOIAF. On the flip side, though, Ned Stark was a POV Character and look what happened to him.
2. It has been argued by some that Young Griff is too young to be Aegon. In A Dance with Dragons, Tyrion notes that Young Griff looks to be about fifteen years old. I've read several accounts that say that Aegon should be at least 18. I'm not sure how those people are doing their math. Dates are a little imprecise in the novels, but it was clear that Aegon was born a few months before Robert's Rebellion started. The rebellion lasted somewhere between six to eighteen months. Dany was born shortly before the rebellion ended. In A Dance with Dragons, Dany is about sixteen (the first five books take place over a three year span), this means that Aegon should be somewhere between sixteen and eighteen. Fifteen is still a bit of a low estimate, but it is not inconceivable that Tyrion confused a seventeen year old with a fifteen year old. Although it is still important to note that there is some ambiguity surrounding the issue of age.
3. Most significantly, In A Clash of Kings Dany receives a vision that tells her to be wary of the 'Mummer's Dragon'. It is widely agreed that Aegon is the dragon in question. The phrase either refers to his connection with Varys (who was raised by mummers) or the fact that he is a false Targaryen (mummers are play actors).
4. In Essos, white hair and violet eyes aren't as rare as they are in Westeros; therefore it is entirely possible that Young Griff only looked the part.
5. If Young Griff is a true Targaryen, who didn't he and Jon Connington try to reunite with Daenerys and Viserys at some point over the intervening ~12 years? Viserys would have known what baby Aegon looked like and there could have been a chance that he would have notice that Young Griff wasn't a real Targaryen (although, that's giving Viserys a lot of credit).
6. It has been proposed (based on virtually no textual evidence) that Young Griff is actually a Blackfyre. House Blackfyres is an offshoot of House Targaryen, founded by Daemon Blackfyre, the illegitimate son of Aegon IV. According to Illyrio, House Blackfyre is extinct in the male line, but there is still a chance that Young Griff could have descended from the female line. If so, Young Griff may still be an important player in the series. As a Blackfyre, he technically still bares Targaryen blood, which means that he could be a useful ally (or even spouse) for Dany. It's a bit like Henry VII of England marrying Elizabeth of York after the royal house of York was essentially extinct in the male line (Edward Plantagenet, Earl of Warwick died about ten years after Henry and Elizabeth's marriage). Since GRRM is known to have been inspired by the English War of the Roses, this isn't an impossible turn of events. I know that there are a lot of Targaryen purists out there, but a Blackfyre is still more of a Targaryen then any other noble house in Westeros. I think Young Griff might have a part to play in this respect. There have also been theories that Young Griff is actually Illyrio's son (since it is widely believed that Illyrio had a Blackfyre wife), but I think that's going a bit far. If anything, Illyrio was introduced to Griff's family through his wife's connections.
All in all, the evidence supporting both sides is a little flimsy. In most cases, evidence can be manipulated to support both sides of the argument. In the end it comes down to instinct; if you've been reading ASOIAF for long enough, you probably have your own theories about the arc of the series.
Valar dohaeris
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